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Wednesday, Aug 20, 2008

MESI Daily Update
 

Strategic Context
Jihadis Shift Attention to War in Afghanistan  Caryle Murphy
In the wake of setbacks suffered by Al Qaeda in Iraq, Afghanistan is becoming the preferred destination for Muslims, particularly from Arab nations, seeking to wage jihad against the West. "You can predict that Afghanistan is reemerging as a battlefield," says Nicole Stracke, a security and terrorism researcher at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. (CS Monitor)

43 Die in Algeria Bomb Attack  
A bomb attack east of Algiers killed 43 people and wounded 45 yesterday, in one of the bloodiest incidents in years in the country. The Interior Ministry said the attack had targeted a paramilitary gendarmerie training school at Issers, 55km east of the capital. The ministry said 42 of the dead were civilians and one was a gendarme - an armed paramilitary soldier. It said 13 of the injured were gendarmes, while the others were civilians. (Gulf Daily News)

Boys 'Flogged' During Shia Ritual in the UK  
A man whipped himself until he bled during a Shia Muslim religious ceremony, before allegedly forcing two boys to do the same, a court has heard. Syed Mustafa Zaidi, 44, is accused of encouraging the boys, aged 13 and 15, to beat themselves at a community centre in Manchester on 19 January. (BBC News)


Regional Affairs
Tuareg rebels to 'Lay Down Arms'  
Tuareg insurgents in the Saharan region of Niger and neighbouring Mali have decided to give up arms this week in favour of mediation, one of the group leaders have said. The move comes a day after Muammar Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, at a meeting in southern Libya urged rebel leaders to end the revolts in Niger and Mali. (Al Jazeera)

UNIFIL Says Graziano Was 'Misquoted'  Dalila Mahdawi
The UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) on Tuesday clarified comments made by the Commander of UN peacekeeping force Claudio Graziano at a news conference at the UN's New York headquarters last Thursday over the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. UNIFIL deputy spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said on Tuesday that Graziano's comments regarding Israel had been "misquoted." (Daily Star - Lebanon)

Israel Reopens Key Gaza Commercial Crossing  
Israel has allowed food and other supplies to enter the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip through a key commercial crossing that had been closed for months, Israeli and Palestinian officials said on Tuesday. Israeli Defence Ministry official Peter Lerner said about 80 trucks would pass through the Kerem Shalom crossing in a trial run before it is officially reopened in accordance with an Egyptian-mediated truce between Israel and Hamas. (Khaleej Times)


Commentary
Arab Nations Need a Common Strategy to Resist Iran’s Ambitions  Ayman Safadi
Ever since the 1979 revolution that brought the mullahs to power, Iran has been trying to position itself as champion of Muslim causes and the defender of the region’s interests against “imperialist” conspiracies. Its populist rhetoric has exploited every Arab and Muslim cause in constant attempts to win the support of disgruntled Arabs and Muslims. Iran’s actions, however, have belied its words. Its policies have shown that it is behaving like a regional bully seeking to subjugate its Arab neighbours. (The UAE National)

Hizbullah's 'Political Jujutsu': Using its Leverage in Lebanon  Brenda Gazzar
The accord that Lebanon's Shi'ite Hizbullah group signed this week with some local Sunni factions to defuse sectarian tension is a strategic political move intended to signal its leverage and its ability to build bridges with even the most unlikely of allies, experts say. (Jerusalem Post)

Iran's War on Trade Unions  Peter Tatchell
The anti-worker dictatorship in Iran has stepped up its attacks on labour activists, with a new wave of arrests and jailings. Among those recently jailed were two workers' rights campaigners, Sousan Razani and Shiva Kheirabadi. They have been sentenced to 15 lashes and four months in prison for the "crime" (under Iran's Islamic law) of participating in a May Day celebration in the city of Sanandaj earlier this year. The verdicts were issued by the criminal court of Sanandaj – branch 101. (The Guardian)


MESI Issue of the Week

The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the Middle East
Ariel Cohen   16/08/2008

The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the Middle East Moscow formulated far-reaching goals when it carefully prepared - over a period of at least two and a half years - for a land invasion of Georgia. These goals included: expelling Georgian troops and effectively terminating Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia and Abkhazia; bringing down President Mikheil Saakashvili and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi; and preventing Georgia from joining NATO. Russia's long-term strategic goals include increasing its control of the Caucasus, especially over strategic energy pipelines. If a pro-Russian regime is established in Georgia, it will bring the strategic Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas pipeline under Moscow's control. In recent years, Moscow granted the majority of Abkhazs and South Ossetians Russian citizenship. Use of Russian citizenship to create a "protected" population residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a slippery slope which is now leading to a redrawing of the former Soviet borders. Russian continental power is on the rise. Israel should understand it and not provoke Moscow unnecessarily, while defending its own national security interests staunchly. Small states need to treat nuclear armed great powers with respect. U.S. intelligence-gathering and analysis on the Russian threat to Georgia failed. So did U.S. military assistance to Georgia, worth around $2 billion over the last 15 years. This is something to remember when looking at recent American intelligence assessments of the Iranian nuclear threat or the unsuccessful training of Palestinian Authority security forces against Hamas. More...


Key Articles


Fundamental Documents
UK Policy Statements
MESI Map
Middle East Strategic Threats
In Quotes
Sheikh Hassan Yousef, a Hamas MP

"Whatever causes damage to the Israeli side is a gain for the Palestinian nation, as far as we're concerned. Clearly it had negative consequences for the Palestinian side too, but the negative effect on the Israeli side was more important to us: In terms of economics there was a huge regression in growth and a loss of billions of dollars to the Israeli economy. The cracks in your steadfastness encouraged us greatly and proved that this means (suicide bombing) is very effective. Ariel Sharon's plan for disengagement from the Gaza Strip is also a great achievement that is a result of our activities. One of the best proofs for us of the rift created in Israeli society as a result of the suicide attacks was the phenomenon of refusal to serve in the army. We thought that this rift should be deepened, and the use of the weapon of suicide bombers became a matter of consensus in the organization."
New Publications

Iran's Race for Regional Supremacy: Strategic Implications for the Middle East 

Lt.-Gen (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, Dr. Dore Gold, Maj.-Gen (res.) Aharon Farkash, Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira, Daniel Diker, Uzi Rubin, Dr. Martin Kramer, Lt.-Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi

 

 


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